In December, the CPA estimated how much power they would need right here (it's a .pdf document, annoyingly). Yet let's look at how well they did last week (the idiotic CPA put this one into an excel document!). Rather than force people to click links I'll throw up the images in a minute. But first let's see how high we've been...from the pdf mentioned earlier:

Now, according to others the CPA pushed the date back to July 1 from June 1. And if we already hit 4,518 on October 6th, you might be inclined to think the 6,000 MW number is completely doable in June or July. But you'd be mistaken, as you can see from the images below, the first two taken directly from the .pdf and the excel sheet, and the second extrapolated from the numbers contained within the excel sheet. Remember, these are all from the horse's...er...the CPA's mouth:

Click on each image to get a larger version. The first image is the official CPA prediction, made back in December. Remember, they were aiming for a June 1 deadline of over 6000 MW.

Here's the power produced in the past three months. Quite a bit lower than predicted. This is also the official CPA graph, from their excel sheet.

The sheet contained numbers going back to August, so I thought I'd regenerate the same graph, only with the history going back farther, so that I could see what the deal was with October and the 4,400 MW number. It turns out that day was a statistical outlier. There is no trend going up...so the 6000MW prediction is optimistic.