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the dredwerkz

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New poll numbers are in and they're not good for Bush. Check out the raw data here.

From the tape:

WASHINGTON — President Bush's public standing, on a downward trend all summer, has slid to its lowest point since the September 11 attacks two years ago, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows. (Related story:Poll results)

Due in large part to an economy that continues to lose jobs, despite positive indicators, and a situation in Iraq that is messier and more costly than Bush predicted, he is taking a big share of the blame.

A thin majority, 52%, approve of the overall job he is doing, down from this year's high of 71% in mid-April, when the war in Iraq still had a glow of victory.

It is an even farther fall for the president from the immediate aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks, when his job approval hit a high of 90%.

On the economy, Bush gets his lowest mark, 45% approval.

Democratic pollster Mark Mellman says, "Bush ... has benefited from circumstances beyond his control. Now reality is setting in."

Bush's slippage suggests that if the election were held today, he would have a tough fight. Among registered voters, he holds a slim 47%-43% lead over an unnamed Democrat. That's down from a more comfortable 51%-39% lead he held two weeks ago.

In a nutshell, Bush is looking very vulnerable and both Dean and Clark are making huge strides upwards in the national consciousness. Put the two together and 43 will go down easy.

posted at: 2003-09-11 17:43:25 with 0 comments

The rumors have started to condense into the truth: Governor Dean and General Clark could team up! Time to roll the tape:

Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean has asked retired Army general Wesley Clark to join his campaign, if the former NATO commander does not jump into the race himself next week, and the two men discussed the vice presidency at a weekend meeting in California, sources familiar with the discussions said.

Clark, in a telephone interview yesterday, said he did not want to comment about the private meeting. Asked about reports that the two men had discussed a wide range of issues, including his endorsing Dean, joining the campaign, possible roles in a Dean administration and the vice presidency, he said only, "It was a complete tour of the horizon."

Later, an adviser quoted Clark as saying, "I have only one decision to make: Will I seek the presidency?"

It was the fourth time Dean and Clark have met face-to-face to discuss the campaign. No decisions were made at the California meeting because Clark is still considering a run for president. Clark is scheduled to make a speech Sept.19 at the University of Iowa, when many political insiders expect him to announce his intentions.

This killer combo would be difficult for anyone to stop, let alone George W. Bush. If Clark were to join the ticket early, before the end of the 3rd quarter, the fundraising implications could be huge. Let's examine the scenario.

If Clark declares he's on the Dean ticket on the 19th, he'd be in a position to exploit a week and a half until the end of the quarter. Immediately, hopefully most of the Draft Clark people (many of whom support Dean and vice-versa) would pour in their expected $1 million war chest they've been waiting to commit. Joe Trippi brings out the bat, and you could easily see a 3-5 million dollar haul over the final 10 days.

Assuming fundraising numbers over $15 million, Dean/Clark would then have the added impetus of being able to push aside lesser candidates. With another southerner in the race, Graham could pull out to focus on his Senate seat. Edwards would be in a similar situation, although his recent decision to rescind his Senate hopes would probably force him to stay in. If Gephardt's numbers looked shaky, he might be forced out. Right now Dick is counting on Iowa, although the latest poll has him in 2nd place, only 6 points ahead of Kerry. If Kerry closed the gap in Iowa and managed to snag 2nd place in fundraising, there'd be a lot of people looking for Gephardt, who had a horrible second quarter, to drop out. By siphoning off even more 'net savvy voters, Dean/Clark would draw more people away from Kucinich, which could keep him down despite his feisty debate performances. Likewise, should Moseley Braun report dismal 3rd quarter numbers, she might have to fold her tent simply due to high operating costs. She's already shelved most staff and any further would doom her campaign to get a place at the table.

So we're left with Lieberman, Edwards, Kerry, Sharpton and Dean/Clark. Lieberman has to get some big money in the 3rd quarter or he's toast. His poll numbers keep dropping across the country. Edwards can stay in if enough people drop out, but he needs to have some major momentum in one of the first two states. South Carolina simply won't cut it. And he needs major money as well. Sharpton just needs to raise enough to keep coming to the debates. He's running a shoestring campaign which helps him greatly in this pre-primary season. Kerry has to fight back against Dean soon before he becomes irrelevant.

Either way the Dean Clark Dream Team is going to kick ass.

posted at: 2003-09-11 00:05:38 with 0 comments

So the debate was on Fox last night. The debate itself was lackluster, mainly because protesting people kept yelling at moments. Whoever did security should be fired.

Post debate, I watched Fox until I grew too nauseated to stand it. In addition to having Fred Barnes be the first post-debate speaker (he railed against the Dems for describing an America most people "disagree with"...as if everything was sunshine and lollipops right now!) the disgusting Sean Hannity came on afterwards and with alan colmes managed to provide no newsworthy comments.

I flipped back a few minutes later to find some Fox talking head describing the latest attacks in Israel as "Homicide Bombings". I'd never heard this spin before. For a few minutes I waited to see if they were describing a different technique, ie, if the bombers had placed bombs un unsuspecting civilians and then detonated them remotely. But no, they were just labeling "suicide bombers" a different name. What a joke. I mean, how many people hear the term "suicide bomber" and think to themselves "what a poor, misguided soul...if only we could've saved him!" Calling them "homicide bombers" is just another way to try and spin things.

As I'm flipping down the channels, I notice CNN is covering the bombings, so I quickly flip to MSNBC, which is airing a show involving one conservative host (Joe Scarborough) interviewing another conservative talking head (Ann Coulter) talking about how the Dems are salivating for Senator Clinton to get in the race.

I wanted to throw my shoe at the television, but wisely decided not to. Thank god this president will be gone in a year and a half. It's too bad the conservatives will start to demonize Dean as soon as he gets the nomination.

posted at: 2003-09-10 10:33:31 with 0 comments

So today was busy. Hence no recap of the weekend.

I'm trying to cut back a bit on the craziness, at least from a financial perspective. I haven't been this low on funds since I moved to the city and it's starting to wear me down. That said, you can still have fun with friends on the cheap.

On that note, let's say I have two friends, Mr. X and Ms. Y. Mr. X and Ms. Y wish to be included in this little newstastic thread. I'm not sure why, but evidently I haven't spoken about them before. (Mr. X used to display an odd propensity for calling me with his butt...ie his cell phone would somehow activate while he was driving around town in his jeep, so I'd get to hear both X and Y discuss things in a muffled manner on my voicemail)

So Mr. X and Ms. Y invite me to a cookout over at their place, and to watch some football. I really should've snagged that Sunday ticket bit on DirecTV but I was lazy. My Saturday spent going for a decent ride, my body was trying to recover from the libations I poured in it both Friday night and Saturday evening. So I'm hurting a bit Sunday, and I'm slow to get over to their place.

When I finally make it over there (several containers of bottles slowed me down somewhat) I'm sweating like a sponge in the sahara. On the upside, due to the rather sucky nature of the games at 1:00, I got to introduce X and Y (and their special guest Z!) to the coolest show on television: MXC. The show is basically like the old Woody Allen flick, "What's Up Tiger Lily" only instead of a movie, it's a game show. So the Japanese stars are in some wacky Nintendo like universe (the original show is called Takeishi's Castle I think) where they have to do crazy stunts to win the game. Dubbed though, the show is wicked fun. Wicked fun. Let's say that again: the show is wicked mad crazy fun.

So after introducing X and Y and Z to the show, we flipped back and forth between a rather lousy NFL Sunday and MXC. (Does anyone remember last year...with all the great games? They can't equal last season anytime soon.)

So there you are, letter-people. I'll reintroduce you the next time we hang out. Which we did on Friday, but it wasn't interesting enough to relate. So there. I'm expecting a little diamond love the next time. Just so U know.

Memo to self: don't have too much fun on Friday night, get no sleep, then bike a bunch the next day, forget to eat until really late, and then rinse later repeat.

I'd describe the kick-ass Dean event from this evening (mixing great Blues guitar work and poltiics is a great combination) which was only a block or two from my house, but I"m too tired. Must get home, somehow. Not enough money for cab.

posted at: 2003-09-09 03:08:09 with 0 comments

You probably already saw it, but just in case you missed the boat, here's the latest scoop from Zogby: Bush is extremely vulnerable! Read the whole bit, but the important numbers to remember are that a majority of people (52%) now want someone else in the White House, with only 40% voting to keep him in.

As usual, the full nuanced view can be found over at Pollkatz which includes Zogby's numbers along with the rest of them. Zogby has been consistently down on Bush, but the line he draws is clear: the President's numbers haven't hit the floor yet. It seems as if there's no end to the troubles ahead.

posted at: 2003-09-08 10:27:05 with 0 comments

I'm really only fiscally conservative, but occasionally even I get into the Puritanical spirit when it is called for. So last night's idiotic "let's sell the National Mall to the highest bidder" smacked of a sell-out. From a great article you should read right now is the definitive takedown:

The event was deemed so auspicious that George W. Bush took yet more time off from fighting the war on terrorism to appear, via videotape, at the end of the concert and just before the game, in the manner of a TV huckster. He tried to make some connection between football and "the spirit that guides the brave men and women" of the military, much as the concert had done.

He also said pro football "celebrates the values that make our country so strong." Like what, violence and greed?

Then, in intense close-up, the leader of the Free World asked the trademarked rhetorical question, "Are you ready for some football?"

Some bureaucrat whose thinking cap had blown off authorized lending the once-solemn, or at least dignified, Mall to this very raucous and very commercial event. The show was a collaboration between the NFL, apparently trying to lure younger viewers to football, and, as the announcer said, "New Pepsi Vanilla and Diet Pepsi Vanilla, the Not-So-Vanilla Vanilla."

...

Each musical act was introduced by a former NFL star -- Joe Theismann and Joe Namath opened the show together -- teamed with a member of the armed forces. Theismann said of the concert, "It's a national moment of remembrance," which really seems preposterous in light of what followed. A woman representing the Coast Guard said, "I'm proud to be an American" before introducing Aerosmith.

I'm not a huge Tom Shales fan...but his article was great. Way to go, Tom!

posted at: 2003-09-05 12:35:18 with 0 comments

go back a week...

...go forward a week