As usual the weathermen were totally wrong. The snow was very light, and easily melted with the massive amounts of salt on the road. I remember that the goal of weather prediction was stymied by advances in chaos theory, preventing the sort of long term weather prognostication that many believed was possible even in the 1970s. However, that problem always revolved around long term trends, like a week or more. The inability to predict the correct amount of snowfall or even the duration of the storm (it was predicted to start in the afternoon but didn't begin until well after dark) is odd, given the increase in sensors scattered around the region.

Much like the inability to accurately predict the weather, the odd logic in our president's head is explained somewhat today in a piece by Michael Kinsley. It's like explaining a snowstorm after the fact: it's easy to do so in hindsight (though Kinsley, as usual, does it better than most) but there's no way to predict the next one. Unless that next one involves invading Iraq.

In preparation for the upcoming snowstorm here in the district, I switched the default style to my personal favorite, white and modified it slightly. Tell me what you think! I'm still waiting for a restaurant review from one of the triumvirate, but I suppose she'll come through sooner or later. And as far as that storm is concerned, it probably won't happen at all. The weathermen tend to be pretty bad down here at predicting snowfall. Everything else they're quite good at but for some reason snow always gets them mixed up.

I remember with longing the days of surpluses as far as the eye could see and the looming baby-boomer-induced deficits far off. Now, though, things have changed. As Glenn Hubbard himself can attest, rising deficits cause an increase in long-term interest rates, which drag the economy down. So why the continued craziness when we may still be in a recession?. It makes no sense. At this rate, once war breaks out, the markets will sink further, which could cause another financial meltdown, which could increase the size of the hole we're already in. The current ten-year prediction forecasts, even from the Administration, predict that we'll be in the red for the entire decade. That means an ever growing national debt. Way to go guys!

Despite being sick yesterday, I did a great deal of work from home. As usual, the triumvirate didn't step in to help me out. No matter. I should have a restaurant review up tomorrow after this evening, and perhaps some more political stuff today. But first, the good news! From the piece:

PRINCETON, NJ -- For the first time since the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, George W. Bush's approval rating has dropped below the 60% level, now showing 58% of Americans who approve and 37% who disapprove of the way he is handling his job as president. In a Gallup Poll conducted just days before the Sept. 11 attacks, Bush's approval rating reached the lowest of his presidency, with 51% approving and 39% disapproving. After the terrorist attacks, his approval skyrocketed, reaching a record 90% in mid-September 2001. It has gradually declined since then, dropping below 80% for the first time in early March 2002, and dropping below 70% for the first time the following July. By December of last year, it was below the 65% level.

Check out the whole article and look at the economic data as well. It just goes to show you that the administration can't pull the wool over everyone's eyes forever. A great quote culled from Maureen Dowd today:

Craig Patterson, a 45-year-old ironworker in St. Louis worried about dwindling construction jobs, summed it up for USA Today: "I trust Bush with my daughter, but I trust Clinton with my job."

This easily displaces a quote last week in CQ when the House Appropriations Committee Democratic Staff Director, Scott Lilly, was asked about the tax cut's impact on funding of the "No Child Left Behind" education law of 2001. His response? "There's probably going to be some children left behind." Classic.

So as of right now, my bridge/firewall setup is working. It's not fully complete, yet, but the code at least functions the way it's supposed to. You'd think I'd be elated. Unfortunately, I'm sick. Grr. This hectic schedule is killing me. Too many political things to impart.

From yesterday's press briefing:

Q Does the President embrace the concept of the progressive taxation? Does he feel that a progressive system is somehow inherently unfair?

MR. FLEISCHER: No, he does. And, in fact, one of the things that is notable about the plan the President announced yesterday, or two days ago, is the President's tax proposal makes the tax code even more progressive.

Q How does it do that? It flattens the rates.

MR. FLEISCHER: Because the share of taxes paid by people at the top actually goes up. Because as you remove people from the bottom of the roles, thanks to the child credit, thanks to the acceleration of the income tax rate reductions and the expansion of the 10 percent tax bracket, you have fewer people actually paying any taxes at all at the bottom. Therefore, the burden that is left is shared increasingly with those who remain at the top.

So the statistics, the facts of the matter are -- and I don't think even the Democrats dispute this -- that the burden of those who pay taxes actually shifts so the upper-income groups pay a higher percentage of the taxes paid.

Uh, sure, Ari. That makes sense, because as we all know, poor people have tons of kids, so all those child tax credits will help them out. No one who's poor is single, or, god forbid, pays payroll taxes yet no federal income taxes. Those people simply don't exist, right?

Fun with Tracker will have to wait...I've spent the last three days in a somewhat aborted attempt to create a bridge-firewall on a debian linux box. After numerous kernel recompiles, several failures and one success (I did get the damn thing to be a proper bridge, at least!) I'm still banging my head against the wall on the firewall side. It's odd: I always want to learn a new thing (or several) each day...or I think my job is wasting my time. And I've been learning a bunch of new stuff this week, but at some point I just want the stupid thing to work. I'm not a code-monkey...I just follow the directions of people who know how to hack. Yet the process is maddeningly slow, given the compile time I have to wait, and the unexplained errors that keep cropping up. Oh, well. Back to the grind.